An Open Letter to Third Parties: How to get a Third Party President by 2036
Dear Third Parties,
You aren’t going to win the Presidency in 2020 but I think you already knew this. You aren’t going to hit the coveted 5% that will give you access to federal election funds either. I think you already knew this too. Given these realities I am not really sure what your goals for running actually are. While I applaud your efforts and think you have some good ideas, I don’t think you have a strategy that will ever win. Just like the two parties it will be more of the same every four years. I am hoping that can change; we need you now more than ever.
Right now we are in a two party system and unless you do some serious rethinking this won’t change until the Republic falls. Third Parties don’t have a winning political strategy at any level. The only “Third” Party we are likely to see is one of the two main parties imploding and reforming under a new name. Neither the Libertarian or Green Party will be considered in this reformation process. The duopoly will continue.
If you will permit me to be blunt for a moment, your current strategy for reshaping national politics does more harm than good. It is so ineffective your only electoral function is to peel away votes and weaken the candidates closest to you politically. In this posture the best you can hope for is that one of the main parties screws up so bad you get to swoop in and win on their behalf. Honestly I think in the wake of a colossal screw up more people will simply not vote than vote for you. This is the naked truth of it. Your ideas are dead on arrival every four years.
That said, I still think you could have immense value. I think having a viable and competitive 3rd or even 4th party would be good for us and the Republic. We need you and I think if you want to actually start making a difference you are going to have to start recalibrating expectations and getting more strategic about where you spend your resources.
A few disclaimers before we get ahead of ourselves, I am not a party insider. I don’t have an inside look into the Libertarian Party or Green Party strategies. I am just a citizen looking at things from a particular vantage point. My proposal assumes two things. One, that the two parties we have won’t implode or die. Anything could happen but I think it is a fair assumption at least in the short term. Secondly it assumes that the systemic barriers to Third Party Presidents like the winner take all Electoral College are not addressed. I think serious reform of the Electoral College is needed to increase competition but this brief strategy is for the world we have not the one we would like.
Again, these are just suggestions. Perhaps you are already doing the things I am going to propose or have another more effective strategy, that’s great. I just personally never hear about or see you except once every 4 years. You may as well not exist in the intervening time. I think if you want to win when it counts that needs to change. You need to be a significant presence in American politics every other year for your Presidential campaigns to matter. What I am about to propose is one way it might happen.
So here it is, my strategy to get a Third Party president elected by 2036.
For Phase 1 you are going to have to think small and focused. Get the Presidency out of your minds for a cycle or two. This might require you to save a bit of cash and not even run a Presidential candidate in 2024. I get that winning 5% of the popular vote does open doors but I don’t think that is realistically going to happen for a while. Temper your expectations and focus your finances on races you can win.
Pick a few states, no more than three, and focus on them relentlessly. They need to be relatively small but not too small. Iowa might be a good place to look at given its strategic value. New Hampshire, Maine, Oregon, South Dakota, or Utah might also be places to look.
Once you find your states run as many candidates as you can in as many local races as possible. Mayors, Sheriffs, State Senators, you name it. Prove you can run lots of races, win, and then actually govern. Partner across party lines to prove that you are needed to get the wheels of government moving. Take every opportunity to speak to media outlets about how your strategy is working and that x town in x state is measurably better because the Libertarian or Green Party is there. All politics is local and this will set you up to win bigger races.
Only after this is done can Phase 2 begin. This phase is to expand operations to a few more key states and look a little higher up on the political totem pole. Find a few select Congressional, Senate and Governors races in 2026–2028 and win them. Again commit to the same strategy of proving that you are the grease that gets things done. Partner with Democrats on issues they care about. Partner with Republicans the same way. Be the deciding votes where it matters. Don’t be partisan and get in front of a camera every chance you get. Additionally be careful who you put in these seats. Ideally this group will be the pool you choose your Presidential nominee from so you need more than a warm body and a winning smile.
Now on to Phase 3, run a nationally recognizable Presidential candidate and get at least 15% of the popular vote. This is a big jump from the 2% you are used to getting but having a track record people recognize is a big deal. The most successful Third Party candidate was Theodore Roosevelt. He got 27% of the popular vote (88 Electoral College votes) but that was only after he had been a sitting President with another party. Your candidate doesn’t have to be a Roosevelt but my point stands, a successful national record speaks volumes. I don’t think this can be done before the 2032 election. Phases 1 and 2 must be measurably successful and your base of support/interest must be growing nationally for this to work. If your candidate doesn’t go into the race without some kind of national record already you have no hope, save your money and wait.
Once these criteria are met it will still be an impossible battle. You will have less money and still probably aren’t going to get on the debate stage. The intervening decade of technological innovations and new media forms will be your friend. Again you have to show demonstrably how your party is the answer. From the local solutions your party pioneered in Phase 1 to key legislation you passed in Phase 2 you have to prove you are the answer with charisma and confidence. Don’t be a martyr and complain about how unfair the 2 party system is. Be positive, offer solutions, and get a significant portion of the electorate.
Once these three phases are successful now it is time to be a little more confident. If you didn’t have FEC money before you certainly have it now. Getting a significant part of the vote and a record to back it up puts you in a good position to be actually competitive by the time 2036 rolls around. Gain more seats in 2034 and in the Presidential campaign show how your party was the bridge between the two parties. Be the solution that will actually get things done and sign bills into law. Whoever your candidate is they must be interesting, excited, and ready to show up on day one to offer solutions that poll well with the majority of Americans.
Do this and you might have a shot in 2036. If you can’t do this it might be better for you to just stop now. Being a viable Third Party in a system designed for two isn’t something you can show up for every four years. It is has to be your full time job or you are just wasting our time.
I love you third parties, I really do. I think you offer a flavor and a perspective that many Americans can get behind. Even so if you keep disappearing after every Presidential election you won’t change anything. You certainly won’t win my vote. You have to prove you can win the small races and actually govern before you have a hope of breaking through. We, and the 2 major parties, need you to deliver on compelling solutions.
I wish you the best. It is going to be a fight. Get out there and show us you can govern and you might be just as surprised as we are how many votes you can get in 2036 and beyond.
